Lana, Marcos, Alberto und Eulenstein, Frank und Schlindwein, Sandro L. und Vasconcelos, Ana Carolina Feitosa und Reining, Eva und Werner, Armin
(2011)
Impacts of climate change on agricultural systems of the La Plata Basin (South America) and the use of crop models to design adaptation strategies.
In: Jahrestagung der DBG 2011: Böden verstehen - Böden nutzen - Böden fit machen, 03.-09.09.2011, Berlin.
Kurzfassung
Climate impacts directly agricultural systems. According to previous studies, an increase in the mean temperature in many regions of the world is expected, and this will influence rainfall, evapotranspiration, among other factors. Some regions expect a decline in precipitation, while others will face an increase in temperature and precipitation. The La Plata Basin is located in South America and plays a very important role in world’s food system supply. The increase of 20% to 30% of annual precipitation during the last decades in the region shaped favorable conditions to a significant expansion of agriculture. Now, studies present a trend of increase in precipitation during the next decades in the region. However, while agriculture may benefit from a warmer climate and more precipitation, the change in climatic patterns and increased potential of extreme events occurrence pose challenges. To analyze the possible impacts of new climatic conditions, cropping systems of major economic relevance for the region – corn, soybeans and wheat – will be studied and simulated with models using future climate scenarios. These models, combined in software packages like DSSAT and SUR couple information of soil characteristics, climate data, phenological and genetic information of crops and management systems. After calibration and validation in actual conditions, simulations will be run with climate change forcing. As result, the probabilities of crop performance in future scenarios will be interpolated on regional maps. Key outputs of this work are the possible consequences of the new climatic conditions on the selected agricultural systems, especially regarding crop yield and soil characteristics and management. The results will also be used as input for climate change adaptation strategies development.
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