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Impact of climate scenarios on soybean yields in Southern Brazil

Eulenstein, Frank and Lana, Marcos, Alberto and Schlindwein, Sandro L. and Tauschke, Marion and Guevara, Edgardo and Meira, Santiago (2013) Impact of climate scenarios on soybean yields in Southern Brazil. In: Böden - Lebensgrundlage und Verantwortung, September 2013, Rostock.

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Abstract

Soybean is a very important crop, cultivated mainly as feedstock for animal production, but also for other uses like biodiesel. Brazil is the second largest producer of soybeans, and the main exporter. About 10% of the Brazilian total production is aimed for biodiesel production. The aim of this work is to assess the impact of climate change scenarios on soybean yield and evaluate two simple adaptation strategies: cultivar and planting date. Tests were done for soil profiles from two important producing regions: Chapecó – Red Oxisol, and Passo Fundo – Rodic Hapludox. Two commercial soybean cultivars (CD202 and CD204) and seven regional circulation models (RCM) were used. All simulations were done with DSSAT. After model calibration, eleven planting dates were run for two periods (2011-2040 and 2071-2100) using the RCM`s. The cultivars did not showed differences among them. For Chapecó, the majority of RCM`s projected yield reductions, with few RCM`s projecting increments, and for only few planting dates (November). The pattern of response for both time periods was identical, although the end-of-century period presented a further yield reduction. The main reason is due reduced water holding capacity from soil, high temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution along the cropping season. For Passo Fundo, 2011-2040 yields are distinct, depending on the RCM. Simulated yields tend to follow the actual yield pattern along the different planting dates, besides discrepancies. For 2071-2100, all but one RCM indicate yields equal or lower to actual levels. Regarding planting dates, no significant changes were identified, although reductions are observed in the early planting dates (August-September). The scenarios suggest that soybean yields will be reduced, jeopardizing the viability of this crop and biodiesel production in the studied regions

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Contribution to "Reports of the DBG")
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change, crop model, adaptation.
Divisions: Kommissionen > Kommission VI: Bodenschutz und Bodentechnologie
Depositing User: Frank Eulenstein
Date Deposited: 02 Nov 2013 12:56
Last Modified: 02 Nov 2013 12:56
URI: http://eprints.dbges.de/id/eprint/999

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